Biofuel Market Potential for Regional Cooperation in ASEAN

With ASEAN’s transport energy demand projected to nearly double by 2050, biofuels represent a critical pathway for both decarbonisation and energy security. This study assesses the potential for regional co-operation to unlock the biofuel market, projecting demand by 2050 for bioethanol (20–22 billion litres), biodiesel (40 billion litres), and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) (12–13 billion litres).

The analysis highlights a structural imbalance across the region: a consistent biodiesel production surplus – driven by Indonesia and Malaysia – contrasts sharply with a persistent and widening bioethanol deficit, particularly in import-dependent economies such as the Philippines. This complementarity underscores the strong potential for intra-ASEAN trade, which could reduce fuel costs, retain greater economic value within the region, and generate more than 5,000 new jobs.

Key recommendations include the establishment of an ASEAN Biofuel Taskforce to harmonise standards and develop a mutual sustainability certification framework – transforming fragmented national efforts into a cohesive and integrated regional market.