Energy Supply Security Study for Myanmar

Myanmar has been a country richly endowed with natural gas resources, but its gas production is expected to decline while electricity consumption, currently heavily dependent on gas-fired power plants, would increase remarkably. The Ministry of Electricity and Energy is aware of this future situation. This report presents an energy supply security scenario for Myanmar based on a recommended power generation mix in 2040 made up of 19% coal, 11% natural gas, 56% hydropower, and 12% renewable energy and biomass. This is a better-balanced composition than that of the business-as-usual scenario in which the share of natural gas is still important (51%). Policy measures in several areas are needed to ensure successful implementation of the scenario, e.g. improving energy efficiency and conservation, reducing the cost of renewable energy power generation, strategic oil stockpiling, facilitation of the biomass supply chain, and application of more efficient biomass stoves. CO2 emissions of the recommended energy supply security scenario will be a bit higher than under the business-as-usual scenario, as the utilisation of domestic coal for power generation with a robust coal supply chain in Myanmar and the deployment of hybrid power systems (combined hydropower and solar photovoltaic generation) will be parts of the recommended strategy. The recommended security scenario is designed to ensure accessibility and affordability.