Towards an Effective Road Transport Fleet Renewal Strategy for Indonesia

The transport sector plays a central role in Indonesia’s decarbonisation efforts, particularly road transport, which accounts for around 24% of national emissions. This is driven by rapid growth in vehicle ownership and continued reliance on fossil fuels.

A key challenge exacerbating emissions is the large share of old and inefficient vehicles. Indonesia currently lacks a structured fleet renewal and vehicle retirement policy, resulting in the persistent accumulation of outdated, high-emission vehicles within the national fleet.

Focusing on private passenger cars, this study employs a population-based model to estimate the costs and benefits of different fleet renewal strategies. It simulates a range of scenarios, including varying combinations of standards, subsidies, regulations, taxes, and scrappage programmes.

The study concludes with a set of regulatory improvements and policy recommendations. To support these, it includes a comprehensive regulatory mapping, international benchmarking, and gap analysis of Indonesia’s existing legal framework and policy initiatives related to cleaner vehicle adoption and the retirement of high-emission legacy vehicles.